Within a MAJOR DOWN TREND a trendless ( trading range/range bound) phase in the medium term of this weekly IRON ORE Chart, may sum the price action behaviour with the commodity IRON ORE.
One may argue that the price action is zig zagging lower and therefore that fits with the Dow Theory Medium Term Down Trend definition. I respect that and I put my argument forward by applying Wyckoff Method of analysis to the price action behaviour in the absence of Volume.
A clear down trend and a notable rally ( counter cyclical move) during April – May 2015 and a retest in July in the form of SIGN OF WEAKNESS ( a Lower trough in Dow Theory) was the Stopping Action of the Medium Term trend from DOWN to a TRENDLESS PHASE ( TR). That was the evidence that the strong down trend in the medium term was at HALT ( No Reversal only a STOP). At present, we are in PHASE B of either Accumulation or Re Distribution which still requires more time to resolve itself.
Odds favouring a breakdown and potential re distribution since the major trend is down but it may also be an Accumulation. Further data and analysis is a must and the upcoming PHASE D/E over the weeks/months ahead is likely to reveal which way the IO may be headed.
There is a confirmed PIVOT POINT short term BULLISH reversal on hand at the end of this week, which prompted me to re visit IO.
In summary if the Wyckoff Method of Analysis is applied as of this writing :
LONG TERM TREND : DOWN
MEDIUM TERM TREND : TRADING RANGE ( Trendless)
SHORT TERM TREND : UP
Weekly IO Chart Below.
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